From policy-driven to market-driven, medium and long-term emphasis on structural opportunities

In recent years, China's new energy vehicle market development: policy support is the foundation, product upgrade is fundamental, electric & intelligent two-wheel drive is the future. 2022 to date, China's new energy vehicle penetration rate is maintained at more than 20%, the market-driven phase has opened. From a global perspective, Europe is located in the late supply-driven stage, the United States in the policy support to enhance the supply-driven accelerated evolution. Medium-term overseas markets are expected to have higher elasticity, and long-term excess returns may rely on high-quality industry chain links.

Medium-term electrification is still the main line, pay attention to the industry chain opportunities brought about by the improvement of cost performance and product power

1) Domestic power battery demand driven by the downstream new energy vehicle release, the medium-term high growth rate continues. As the supply and demand pattern continues to evolve, the subsequent full opening of overseas and energy storage market is the key. 2) The upstream cost pressure is high in the background of the battery leading enterprises stage pressure, parity + upstream supply and demand loosening under the leading performance inflection point is fully confirmed, leading enterprises to continue to improve profitability. 3) For power batteries, the system, structure of innovation is the future highlights, such as Kirin battery, 46 system, etc.

Lithium materials link into the supply and demand loosening stage, grasp the core growth, new technologies and post-cycle investment opportunities

For cathode, the upgrade direction revolves around two main lines of improving the specific capacity and voltage, ternary material high nickel, high voltage process continues to advance, the new phosphate system materials are expected to drive the lithium iron system to further upgrade; negative electrode, short-term production restrictions and power supply and demand tension in the graphitized background, market share will be further concentrated in the leading enterprises, medium-term structural overcapacity, fast charging, silicon-based and other high-end products are expected to bring high Growth rate, long-term energy storage high growth driven by the development of sodium battery system, amorphous carbon is expected to usher in a broad growth space; diaphragm, equipment bottlenecks under the tight balance continues, medium-term supply and demand pattern is better, cost control and product development capacity accumulation first, the leading enterprises have formed a solid barrier; electrolyte, the second half of the supply and demand pattern loosening, the downward cycle of "leftovers In terms of electrolyte, the supply and demand pattern will be loosened in the second half of the year, and the "leftovers" will be the king in the down cycle.

The new energy vehicle industry has entered a market-driven phase, with core growth companies expected to traverse the cycle; overall, the industry's structural opportunities are greater than the overall opportunities; structural opportunities are mainly focused on the post-cycle, new technology direction, with post-cycle opportunities stemming from the new energy vehicle industry chain capacity release under the drive for energy storage, replenishment and recycling business, while new technology opportunities stemming from the rapid increase in penetration rate under the peak of supply and demand. Emphasis on three directions of opportunities: 1) core growth: according to the high and low barrier investment (battery, resources, diaphragm, etc.), BYD, Ningde Time, Huayou Cobalt, Putai Lai, Enjie shares and other companies benefit; 2) post-cycle: according to the growth rate of elasticity investment, need to pay attention to energy storage, recycling and other sectors, Painan Technology, Penghui Energy, Greenmax and other companies benefit; 3) new technology: according to the speed of penetration rate increase investment, such as Sodium battery, 4680, flat wire, etc., Dingsheng new material, Huayang shares, Yiwei lithium energy, when the rise of science and technology, gold cup electrician and other companies to benefit.

(Article source: Pacific New Energy)