Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rose all the way from the beginning of this year to a high of 500,000 yuan / ton in March, when the market was in an uproar. After this price high shock for more than a month, until mid-April, when the price fell below 500,000 yuan / ton, market participants have debated the prospects of the lithium carbonate market, the price trend also holds different views. However, the price did not fall too much, has been hovering above 400,000 yuan / ton.

The high price of battery-grade lithium carbonate on the upstream and downstream impact is becoming more prominent, but also in the reshaping of the entire industry chain pattern.

　　As the most critical material for new energy vehicle power battery, lithium prices soaring so that the cost of the middle and downstream enterprises are getting higher and higher, to Ningde Time as the representative of the power battery companies and downstream car companies are also caught in a strange circle of price increases to cope with the high cost pressure.

　　New energy vehicles high boom continues, despite the continuous expansion of listed companies, but lithium carbonate supply and demand contradictions in the short term is still difficult to solve, forcing the industry chain companies began to do their own.

　　In order to get rid of the lack of lithium resources and lithium prices continue to rise in a passive situation, Ningde Times, BYD and other midstream and downstream companies have begun to integrate the layout, while joining the upstream mining army, while the layout of the downstream power battery recycling.

　　A number of interviewed by the "Securities Daily" reporter business people and experts believe that, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, power battery installed capacity continues to rise, which means that lithium carbonate in the short term will be in short supply, the price will remain high, in the face of high cost pressure, integrated industry chain layout is becoming the common choice of power battery companies and car companies.

Lithium carbonate prices will rise again?

　　Shanghai Steel Union's latest data show that on September 13, battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 2,600 yuan / ton, the average price reported 500,000 yuan / ton. This price is nearly 8 times higher than the beginning of 2021, and nearly 80% higher than the beginning of this year; on September 14, battery-grade lithium carbonate still maintains a high price of 500,000 yuan / ton.

　　In this regard, Shanghai Steel Union new energy division lithium industry analyst Qu Yinfei said to the "Securities Daily" reporter, supply and demand issues dominate the lithium carbonate price increase, August supply-side reduction, downstream demand to maintain a high boom, the supply and demand contradiction aggravated superimposed on the spot market mine end of the price increase, a variety of factors to support the lithium carbonate price back to high levels.

　　Salt Lake Secretary Li Shun in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter said that the main reason for the rise in lithium carbonate prices is the supply of the entire market is more shortage of goods. In addition, the downstream part of the new lithium iron phosphate plants have been completed and started, the market demand for lithium increased.

　　"With the arrival of the traditional peak sales season, the industry chain is stocking up in advance leading to the rise of lithium carbonate prices, which are expected to be at a high level in these two quarters." Xinfang lithium analyst Cheng Ling told "Securities Daily".

Under the background of high demand, listed companies are accelerating the expansion of lithium carbonate capacity.

　　Salt Lake said on September 13 in the interactive platform, the company has now achieved 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate production capacity, self-built 40,000 tons of basic lithium salt integration project has been implemented, planned to be put into production in 2024, Salt Lake BYD jointly developed 30,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate project in the promotion.

　　On September 14, Guoxuan Hi-Tech also replied to investors that the smelting and processing end of Guoxuan Kefeng is expected to produce about 8,000 tons of lithium carbonate this year, and with the gradual climbing of Kefeng's production capacity next year lithium carbonate output is expected to gradually increase, and costs will continue to fall.

　　At the same time, Guoxuan Hi-Tech is planning to build 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate projects in Yifeng and Fengxin, and each supporting 7.5 million tons of lithium mica ore mining project, in fact, Yifeng Phase I 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate project is expected to be put into operation in the first quarter of next year, which will also provide strong support for the company's lithium carbonate shipment target next year.

　　In addition, Ganfeng Lithium, Zangger Mining, Tianqi Lithium and other related listed companies are actively expanding lithium carbonate production capacity.

　　Statistics from Xinfang database show that the global new lithium carbonate capacity in 2022 is about 180,000 tons; the global new lithium carbonate capacity in 2023 is about 400,000 tons.

　　According to Cheng Ling, driven by high profits, global capital of all kinds is trying to open mines, but the mining cycle of mines takes 3 to 5 years to get on the volume, and the short-term is still tense.

　　"The lithium carbonate construction and production takes time, the tight supply of the resource side affects the product capacity utilization, and the terminal demand exceeds expectations, etc., are the reasons that affect the product supply." Qu Yinfei said.

　　In the supply of tight at the same time, demand is also increasing significantly, the rapid growth of new energy vehicles drive the power battery industry continues to be hot.

　　CCA data show that from January to August this year, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 3.97 million units and 3.86 million units respectively, an increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times year-on-year, and the market share of new energy vehicles reached 22.9%.

　　Many market participants expect new energy vehicle sales to continue to record high this year, which also means that power batteries and lithium carbonate will be in high demand.

　　According to the data released by Tiburon Consulting on September 14, the global installed power battery market size is expected to move from billion watt hours to billion kilowatt hours by 2024, and will exceed 300 million kilowatt hours by 2030, of which, China's installed power battery size is expected to occupy about 45% of the world.

　　Zangger Mining Secretary Li Ruishe said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter, new energy vehicle production and sales continue to grow, the second half of some new energy vehicle manufacturers to upgrade production lines, capacity expansion, with the arrival of the traditional golden consumption season, new energy vehicle sales are expected to continue to show rapid growth, the demand for lithium is still very strong.

　　Qu Yinfei believes that lithium carbonate prices will remain high, the "golden nine silver ten" and the end of the rush to install the period will cause demand to rise. And the overall supply increment is limited, can not match the rapid rise in demand. The spot market offer and transaction prices are gradually increasing, with high prices above 500,000 yuan / ton.

What about downstream companies?

　　The rising price of lithium carbonate is changing the industrial structure of new energy vehicles and power batteries, and mastering upstream lithium resources has almost become the industry consensus.

　　The upstream of the lithium battery industry chain is raw materials and lithium equipment, the midstream is lithium battery manufacturing, and the downstream is lithium battery applications. The record high prices of lithium materials have led to two extremes of industrial development: the concentration of profits to the upstream and pressure to the downstream.

　　This status quo, once in the different industrial end of the enterprise "full of complaints": car companies complained about profits are let battery companies earned away; and battery companies said the cost of pressure, but also in the upstream work.

　　From 2022 semi-annual report data, Tianqi lithium industry, Ganfeng lithium industry on behalf of lithium salt-related net profit of listed companies have achieved more than doubled; while Ningde Time, Guoxuan High-tech power battery companies such as gross profit margin fell sharply, including Ningde Time's power battery system operating costs is a year-on-year increase of 186.78%; car companies as the most downstream, the worst days, Sailis, ST Zotye and other car companies are in loss state.

　　Sources from BAIC Blue Valley told the Securities Daily reporter that the price of raw materials has risen and new energy vehicles have been affected, while the soaring price of upstream raw materials for power batteries has become a "roadblock" blocking the rapid development of new energy vehicles.

　　And from the "Securities Daily" reporter's interview, this development situation, in a certain period of time will continue.

　　"The second half of the terminal industry to maintain a high level of heat, lithium iron phosphate production progress in an orderly manner, to promote the lithium carbonate product demand." Zhuo Chuang information analyst Han Minhua told the Securities Daily reporter, new and old players actively enter the market to seek stable suppliers of lithium carbonate, locking the amount in advance is currently one of the main ways to negotiate the industry. This phenomenon directly leads to the current social inventory is mainly concentrated in the middlemen and downstream head factory, lithium carbonate supply side several no spot inventory, the price of new orders firm.

　　"In the short term, lithium carbonate prices up and down are under pressure. On the one hand, supported by better demand, the supply side of the spot inventory level is not high, smooth sales; on the other hand, the wave of lithium carbonate prices, downstream materials prices did not have a significant increase in product prices, lithium carbonate price increases conduction there is a hindrance to the subsequent product price increases form a certain limit. Overall, the short-term domestic lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a narrow range of finishing." Han Minhua told reporters.

Comprehensive view, the price fluctuations of lithium materials in the industry chain, the hair and move the whole body.

　　The latest research report of Ping An Securities believes that the supply of upstream lithium resources is the key to determine the future trend of lithium prices. Upstream and downstream production cycle mismatch is the root cause of the lithium demand outbreak under the supply is difficult to respond quickly, in the shortage pattern, the resource side is still an important variable in the future lithium price trend. At present, the supply and demand gap superimposed on the cost support upward, lithium prices still have some upside. Global lithium resources before 2024 still maintain a tight pattern, the resource bottleneck, the industry chain profits gradually move up, the package model or further amplify the contradiction between supply and demand, lithium prices are expected to remain high.

In view of this, the resource self-sufficiency rate is high or is accelerating the development of integrated enterprises are generally optimistic about the industry.

　　Dong Yang, chairman of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, said recently that host plants in order to cope with rising raw materials, deep into the battery industry chain upstream and downstream, some began to build their own batteries, investment in mining plants, will also have an impact on power battery companies.

　　For example, Ningde Time in order to lock upstream resources, accelerate the integration of upstream and downstream integration, and constantly layout lithium carbonate projects in Yichun, Jiangxi.

　　On September 7, Longben Technology announced that Tangshan Xinfeng Lithium and Yichun Times, a subsidiary of Ningde Time, intend to cooperate on the annual output of 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate project, which is not the first time Ningde Time entered the upstream. Last September, Ningde Times announced that it would invest a total of more than 50 billion yuan in Yichun to build a lithium battery base and the corresponding lithium carbonate and other materials production base.

　　Public information shows that Yichun, Jiangxi has the world's largest lithium mica mine, with available lithium oxide reserves of 2.6 million tons, accounting for 37.6% of the national total, and is known as "Asia's lithium capital".

Previously, Ganfeng Lithium and other head enterprises have been laid out in this.

　　"From the current state of industry development, it is recommended that upstream lithium salt manufacturers fully integrate global resources, accelerate the research and development process of salt lake and mica lithium extraction technology, and improve their own lithium resources supply chain resilience and anti-risk capacity." Said consultant new materials industry research center analyst Zhao Dangui to the "Securities Daily" reporter, the downstream battery manufacturers should strengthen technology research and development, improve the key performance indicators of battery products, while strengthening the life cycle traceability management of lithium batteries, and promote upstream and downstream cooperation in the industry chain to build a recycling channel, and jointly shape the integrated value chain of lithium; lithium industry-related enterprises should also accelerate the integration of the industry chain layout, to ensure that the key Resource supply at the same time to maintain a more stable level of profitability, reducing the risk and pressure brought about by the significant expansion of the market.

　　"Lithium battery industry chain profits are concentrated in the upstream lithium ore link. Production link cathode materials, although the current theoretical profit value are profitable, but due to the downstream battery factory on the price increase acceptance is limited, the actual transaction is still suppressed, the profit margin of the production enterprises is limited. Companies should be based on their own actual situation of reasonable planning layout, do not blindly enter. Should strengthen the planning and layout of the resource end, and the upstream and downstream to establish good cooperation." Qu Yinfei further said.